20 July 2023
In 2021, Centurions qualified for playoffs with a 5-5 record, while Kings (5-5) did not.
In 2022, Raiders and Dragons qualified with a 8-4 record, while Galaxy and Rhein Fire (both 8-4) did not.
Before the 2023 season we predicted that most probably 8-4 would be needed for a wild card, but 7-5 might be enough.
Now after week 7, in theory a 5-7 record could still bring you into the playoffs, so no team is out of the playoff race yet.
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19 July 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages assuming random results based on 100.000 simulations.
Rhein Fire (67%) and Vienna Vikings (67%) are pretty certain winning their conferences. In the central conference, Stuttgart Surge (45%) is slighlty ahead of Raiders Tirol (37%), but Munich Ravens (12%) are still in the hunt.
Berlin Thunder (74%) have good chances to qualify for playoffs as wildcard. The last wild card might well be decided between Frankfurt Galaxy (67%) and Panthers Wroclaw (49%).
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27 June 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages based on 100.000 simulations and our current strength model.
Central After beating the Raiders, Surge has the highest probability of winning the conference. However, Raiders have an higher chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
Eastern Chance of Thunder winning the conference has dropped from 22% to 13%.
Western Galaxy (45% to 51%) and Sea Devils (15% to 21%) could both increase their chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
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21 June 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages based on 100.000 simulations and our current strength model.
Central Eastern Western
29 May 2023
In 2021, Centurions qualified for playoffs with a 5-5 record, while Kings (5-5) did not.
In 2022, Raiders and Dragons qualified with a 8-4 record, while Galaxy and Rhein Fire (both 8-4) did not.
How about 2023? 17 instead of 12 teams, six instead of four play off teams, two/four interconference games instead of six. And the possibility that up to three teams from one conference can qualify for playoffs.
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16 May 2023
7 February 2023
Largest ELF stadiums # 3: Schauinsland-Reisen-Arena 31,500: Rhein Fire regular season 2022/23, Championship game 2023 # 2: Merkur Spiel-Arena 54,600: Frankfurt Galaxy vs Hamburg Sea Devils September 26th, 2021 # 1: Volksparkstadion 57,000: Rhein Fire @ Hamburg Sea Devils June 11th, 2023 #
17 December 2022
Totals Distances per teams 17 Teams, each travelling six times. But which team travels the most? That’s easy, obviously it’s the Dragons. So who travels the least? Let’s sum up distances on the road. We use Open Street Map, distances in kilometers between each stadium (if known, otherwise we use city centre). Centurions are traveling the least with just under 2377 Kilometers, followed by Lions and Fire. Paris has the largest distances in total (apart from Dragons), with their 488 km trip to Cologne as shortest distance.
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1 July 2022
Week 5 predictions (via Twitter) # Istanbul Rams at Barcelons Dragons: 🐲 WIN 85% #ISTatBDR
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Berlin Thunder at Cologne Centurions: Cologne WIN 55% #BTHatCCE
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Frankfurt Galaxy at Raiders Tirol: 🌌 WIN 55% #FRGatRAI
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Stuttgart Surge at Leipzig Kings: Leipzig win 62% #SURatLKG
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23 June 2022
Week 3 had some clear results and slowly we see which teams are strong at the beginning of thins season. Our power ranking after week 3 sees the 3-0 teams Rhein Fire, Vikings and Dragons in front, all three with nearly similar strength. Sea Devils are behind on four. Then we have a group of five as middle tier. The bottom three are Rams, Kings and Surge.
The top game of week 4 is obviously @ Dragons @ Rhein Fire.
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