31 July 2023
Two new records in most scored points by a team in a game, another shutout and two more five-score games. So everyone is talking about: The league is too unbalanced!
Now I will not argue against this statement, I will compare the point differences in the current season to the previous ELF seasons. I will look at the 40 regular season games in 2021, the 72 regular season games in 2022, and the 65 games up to week 9 in the 2023 season.
20 July 2023
In 2021, Centurions qualified for playoffs with a 5-5 record, while Kings (5-5) did not.
In 2022, Raiders and Dragons qualified with a 8-4 record, while Galaxy and Rhein Fire (both 8-4) did not.
Before the 2023 season we predicted that most probably 8-4 would be needed for a wild card, but 7-5 might be enough.
Now after week 7, in theory a 5-7 record could still bring you into the playoffs, so no team is out of the playoff race yet. And also in theory, 9-3 might be not enough, so still no team is qualified yet.
19 July 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages assuming random results based on 100.000 simulations.
Rhein Fire (67%) and Vienna Vikings (67%) are pretty certain winning their conferences. In the central conference, Stuttgart Surge (45%) is slighlty ahead of Raiders Tirol (37%), but Munich Ravens (12%) are still in the hunt.
Berlin Thunder (74%) have good chances to qualify for playoffs as wildcard. The last wild card might well be decided between Frankfurt Galaxy (67%) and Panthers Wroclaw (49%). Small chances still for Hamburg Sea Devils (20%), Barcelona Dragons (14%) and Cologne Centurions (14%). Fehervar Enthroners are statisticially out.
27 June 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages based on 100.000 simulations and our current strength model.
After beating the Raiders, Surge has the highest probability of winning the conference. However, Raiders have an higher chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
Chance of Thunder winning the conference has dropped from 22% to 13%.
Galaxy (45% to 51%) and Sea Devils (15% to 21%) could both increase their chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
21 June 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages based on 100.000 simulations and our current strength model.
29 May 2023
In 2021, Centurions qualified for playoffs with a 5-5 record, while Kings (5-5) did not.
In 2022, Raiders and Dragons qualified with a 8-4 record, while Galaxy and Rhein Fire (both 8-4) did not.
How about 2023? 17 instead of 12 teams, six instead of four play off teams, two/four interconference games instead of six. And the possibility that up to three teams from one conference can qualify for playoffs.
16 May 2023
7 February 2023
17 December 2022
17 Teams, each travelling six times. But which team travels the most? That’s easy, obviously it’s the Dragons. So who travels the least? Let’s sum up distances on the road. We use Open Street Map, distances in kilometers between each stadium (if known, otherwise we use city centre). Centurions are traveling the least with just under 2377 Kilometers, followed by Lions and Fire. Paris has the largest distances in total (apart from Dragons), with their 488 km trip to Cologne as shortest distance. Enthroners follows, with a short trip to Vienna and five trips with more that 490 kilometers.
1 July 2022
Istanbul Rams at Barcelons Dragons: 🐲 WIN 85% #ISTatBDR
Berlin Thunder at Cologne Centurions: Cologne WIN 55% #BTHatCCE
Frankfurt Galaxy at Raiders Tirol: 🌌 WIN 55% #FRGatRAI
Stuttgart Surge at Leipzig Kings: Leipzig win 62% #SURatLKG
