Wild card simulations
29 May 2023
In 2021, Centurions qualified for playoffs with a 5-5 record, while Kings (5-5) did not.
In 2022, Raiders and Dragons qualified with a 8-4 record, while Galaxy and Rhein Fire (both 8-4) did not.
How about 2023? 17 instead of 12 teams, six instead of four play off teams, two/four interconference games instead of six. And the possibility that up to three teams from one conference can qualify for playoffs.
We did a couple of different simulations settings using the 2023 schedule to look into this. Three of those are presented here: An “realistic setting” based on published power rankings, a “random setting” with power randomly sampled for teams, and an “extreme setting” with Fire, Galaxy, Musketeer, Sea Devils from Western conference, Raiders from Central and Vikings from Eastern are top, and Thunder and Surge are mediocre (forget about the rest).
Playoff qualification
TLDR: 8-4 will most likely be the record you need to qualify for wild card round, but 7-5 could be enough.
In the “realistic” setting, the team ranked 6 (so qualified for wild card round) had an 8-4 record round in 55% of the simulations. In 34% of the simulation 7-5 was enough. In rank 6 had 9-3, in 2% 6-6. The team ranked 7 had 7-5 in 60%. In 26% 8-4 was not enough, rank 7 had even 1% 9-3. The following graphic shows the combinations in this simulation setting.
In the random simulation setting it was slightly easier to qualify for wild card: in 48% of the simulation rank 6 had 8-4, in 44% 7-5, in 5% 9-3 and in 3% 6-6.
In the extreme simulation setting it was slightly harder: rank 6 had 7-5 in 17%, 8-4 in 68%, 9-3 in 15%
Wild card per conference
TLDR: It is unlikely that we will see three wild card qualifiers from one conference.
The number of wild card qualifiers per conference obviously depends stongly on the distribution of good teams on the conferences. In our “random simulation” setting, where we just use random strength for each team, only in 0.2% of simulation three teams from one conference could qualify. However, in 56% of the simulation each conference had one wild card team, and in 44% one conference had two wild cards, and one had none.
In our realistic simulation setting we get the same result: 0.2% for three teams from one conference.
In the extreme simulation setting, we assume four equally strong teams from Western conference, and one from Central and Eastern. Even in this setting, only in 27% of the simulations the Western conference has all three wild cards. In 65% there are two qualifiers from one conference, and in 8% each conference has one team each in the wild cards.
