First 2024 simulation

6 December 2023

Conferences and inter conference games are out. Time for the first simulation of the 2024 season. For this, we use the team strength for the 2023 season as estimated by our model, replacing the Leipzig Kings with the Madrid Bravos.

The results of the simulations are of course very similar to the results of the 2023 season. There are however some interesting differences due to the changes in interconference games and Madrid replacing Leipzig.

In the Central Conference the Munich Ravens have a mean simulated number of 8.3 wins, and such are only a little bit behind central conference winner Stuttgart Surge with 8.9. In 2024, Munich will face Prague Lions (#17 in 2023), in 2023 they faced Rhein Fire (#1).

In the Eastern Conference the ranking is unchanged, but the simulated playoff chances of Berlin Thunder and Panthers Wroclaw, Wild Card teams in 2023, are relatively low: 27.8% and 25.7%. Both teams will face stronger interconference opponents and lost the Kings as opponent in the conference.

The Western Conference sees litte change. However the Hamburg Sea Devils are en par with the Paris Musketeers. Sea Devils will face Prague Lions and Madrid Bravos in 2024 instead of Thunder and Panthers in 2023.

Of course the simulations are based on last years strength, and therefore the results need to be taken with a grain of salt. The ongoing signing will of course change the picture in the future.