26 August 2023
Playoff race going into final week of the regular season
Playoff spots secured Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner, bye to semifinal, home advantage) Stuttgart Surge (Central conference winner, ranked #3, home advantage in wild card round) Rhein Fire Frankfurt Galaxy Western conference Galaxy needs win vs Fire > +24 to clinch Western conference and bye to semi final.
Either Galaxy or Fire will be ranked #4 and, hence, have home advantage in Wild Card round.
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19 August 2023
Play of race after week 12.
Playoff spots secured Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner) Rhein Fire Frankfurt Galaxy Western conference Fire win conference unless Galaxy
Win at Sea Devils plus win vs Fire > +24 Win vs Fire > +24 and Fire loss at Guards Win vs Sea Devils and win vs Fire < +24 and Fire loss at Guards Central conference Surge win conference unless Raiders
Win at Seamen plus win vs Surge > +3 or Win vs Surge > +3 and Surge loss at Guards or Win vs Seamen and win vs Surge < +3 and Surge loss at Guards Bye week Fire and Vikings have a bye to the semifinal, unless
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13 August 2023
After week 11, two teams have secured playoff spots, and seven teams battle for four more spots. Teams need at least seven wins for playoff qualification, and nine wins will secure a playoff spot for sure.
Playoff spots secured Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner) Rhein Fire Hamburg Sea Devils (4-5) Remaining games:
vs Paris Musketeers vs Frankfurt Galaxy at Berlin Thunder Scenario for playoff qualification:
Sea Devils win three remaining games (7-5) Panthers win vs Thunder and loose vs Enthroners (all 7-5).
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9 August 2023
Bye week is over and we start in the final four weeks of the regular season. Here is a breakdown of the playoff picture. Let’s start with the battle for conference titles.
Eastern conference Vienna Vikings travel to Wroclaw on Sunday. If the Vikings win, they are the first team to clinge a conference title!
If Vikings loose however, they only need two more wins. With games vs Enthroners and in Prague in weeks 13 and 14, that shouldn’t be a big problem.
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1 August 2023
Strongest conference For the 2023 season, the ELF conferences were reorganised. Before the season, the Western conference was said to be the strongest. After nine weeks, this can be confirmed. Out of their 14 interconference games, the Western teams won eleven and lost three: Hamburg vs Wroclaw (Eastern) in week 1 and Paris both games vs Stuttgart (Central). In the only eastern-central-interconference game, Vienna (Eastern) beat Tirol (Central).
Strength of schedule Looking at each teams schedule, we can compute the strength of schedule.
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31 July 2023
Two new records in most scored points by a team in a game, another shutout and two more five-score games. So everyone is talking about: The league is too unbalanced!
Now I will not argue against this statement, I will compare the point differences in the current season to the previous ELF seasons. I will look at the 40 regular season games in 2021, the 72 regular season games in 2022, and the 65 games up to week 9 in the 2023 season.
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20 July 2023
In 2021, Centurions qualified for playoffs with a 5-5 record, while Kings (5-5) did not.
In 2022, Raiders and Dragons qualified with a 8-4 record, while Galaxy and Rhein Fire (both 8-4) did not.
Before the 2023 season we predicted that most probably 8-4 would be needed for a wild card, but 7-5 might be enough.
Now after week 7, in theory a 5-7 record could still bring you into the playoffs, so no team is out of the playoff race yet.
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19 July 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages assuming random results based on 100.000 simulations.
Rhein Fire (67%) and Vienna Vikings (67%) are pretty certain winning their conferences. In the central conference, Stuttgart Surge (45%) is slighlty ahead of Raiders Tirol (37%), but Munich Ravens (12%) are still in the hunt.
Berlin Thunder (74%) have good chances to qualify for playoffs as wildcard. The last wild card might well be decided between Frankfurt Galaxy (67%) and Panthers Wroclaw (49%).
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27 June 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages based on 100.000 simulations and our current strength model.
Central After beating the Raiders, Surge has the highest probability of winning the conference. However, Raiders have an higher chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
Eastern Chance of Thunder winning the conference has dropped from 22% to 13%.
Western Galaxy (45% to 51%) and Sea Devils (15% to 21%) could both increase their chance of qualifying for the playoffs.
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21 June 2023
Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages based on 100.000 simulations and our current strength model.
Central Eastern Western