2023

Standings 2023

Standings
2023, Standings

Standings 2023 #

Play-offs #

Championship Game #

September 24, 2023 Stuttgart Surge 34 53 Rhein Fire

Semi Finals #

September 16, 2023 Stuttgart Surge 40 @ 33 Vienna Vikings
September 17, 2023 Frankfurt Galaxy 23 @ 42 Rhein Fire

Wild Card Games #

September 9, 2023 Berlin Thunder 3 @ 20 Frankfurt Galaxy
September 10, 2023 Panthers Wroclaw 14 @ 37 Stuttgart Surge

Western Conference #

Rhein Fire 12 12 0 1.000 540 199
Frankfurt Galaxy 12 10 2 0.833 382 233
Paris Musketeers 12 6 6 0.500 320 277
Hamburg Sea Devils 12 4 8 0.333 247 278
Cologne Centurions 12 4 8 0.333 186 330

Central Conference #

Stuttgart Surge 12 10 2 0.833 387 237
Raiders Tirol 12 8 4 0.667 307 230
Munich Ravens 12 7 5 0.583 425 338
Helvetic Guards 12 3 9 0.250 174 378
Barcelona Dragons 12 2 10 0.167 199 396
Milano Seamen 12 2 10 0.167 328 497

Eastern Conference #

Vienna Vikings 12 12 0 1.000 414 180
Berlin Thunder 12 8 4 0.667 378 188
Panthers Wroclaw 12 8 4 0.667 385 221
Fehervar Enthroners 12 3 9 0.250 218 424
Leipzig Kings 12 2 10 0.167 189 387
Prague Lions 12 1 11 0.083 155 441

League #

Games Win Loss SQ P+ P- PD
1 Rhein Fire 12 12 0 1.000 540 199 +341
2 Vienna Vikings 12 12 0 1.000 414 180 +234
3 Stuttgart Surge 12 10 2 0.833 387 237 +150
4 Frankfurt Galaxy 12 10 2 0.833 382 233 +149
5 Berlin Thunder 12 8 4 0.667 378 188 +190
6 Panthers Wroclaw 12 8 4 0.667 385 221 +164
7 Raiders Tirol 12 8 4 0.667 307 230 +77
8 Munich Ravens 12 7 5 0.583 425 338 +87
9 Paris Musketeers 12 6 6 0.500 320 277 +43
10 Hamburg Sea Devils 12 4 8 0.333 247 278 -31
11 Cologne Centurions 12 4 8 0.333 186 330 -144
12 Helvetic Guards 12 3 9 0.250 174 378 -204
13 Fehervar Enthroners 12 3 9 0.250 218 424 -206
14 Milano Seamen 12 2 10 0.167 328 497 -169
15 Barcelona Dragons 12 2 10 0.167 199 396 -197
16 Leipzig Kings 12 2 10 0.167 189 387 -198
17 Prague Lions 12 1 11 0.083 155 441 -286

Playoff picture

26 August 2023
2023

Playoff race going into final week of the regular season

Playoff spots secured

  • Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner, bye to semifinal, home advantage)
  • Stuttgart Surge (Central conference winner, ranked #3, home advantage in wild card round)
  • Rhein Fire
  • Frankfurt Galaxy

Western conference

Galaxy needs win vs Fire > +24 to clinch Western conference and bye to semi final.

Either Galaxy or Fire will be ranked #4 and, hence, have home advantage in Wild Card round.

...

Playoff picture

19 August 2023
2023

Play of race after week 12.

Playoff spots secured

  • Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner)
  • Rhein Fire
  • Frankfurt Galaxy

Western conference

Fire win conference unless Galaxy

  1. Win at Sea Devils plus win vs Fire > +24
  2. Win vs Fire > +24 and Fire loss at Guards
  3. Win vs Sea Devils and win vs Fire < +24 and Fire loss at Guards

Central conference

Surge win conference unless Raiders

...

Playoff picture after week 11

13 August 2023
2023

After week 11, two teams have secured playoff spots, and seven teams battle for four more spots. Teams need at least seven wins for playoff qualification, and nine wins will secure a playoff spot for sure.

Playoff spots secured

  • Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner)
  • Rhein Fire

Hamburg Sea Devils (4-5)

Remaining games:

  • vs Paris Musketeers
  • vs Frankfurt Galaxy
  • at Berlin Thunder

Scenario for playoff qualification:

  1. Sea Devils win three remaining games (7-5)
  1. Panthers win vs Thunder and loose vs Enthroners (all 7-5). Ravens lose at least two games, Both Raiders and Surge win at least one game (none with 7-5).
  2. Sea Devils win large blowouts (> +30 each game) and either Surge or Raiders lose all games and Panthers lose all games.

Munich Ravens (5-4)

Remaining games:

...

Playoff picture before week 11

9 August 2023
2023

Bye week is over and we start in the final four weeks of the regular season. Here is a breakdown of the playoff picture. Let’s start with the battle for conference titles.

Eastern conference

Vienna Vikings travel to Wroclaw on Sunday. If the Vikings win, they are the first team to clinge a conference title!

If Vikings loose however, they only need two more wins. With games vs Enthroners and in Prague in weeks 13 and 14, that shouldn’t be a big problem.

...

Strength of schedule 2023 (week 9)

1 August 2023
2023

Strongest conference

For the 2023 season, the ELF conferences were reorganised. Before the season, the Western conference was said to be the strongest. After nine weeks, this can be confirmed. Out of their 14 interconference games, the Western teams won eleven and lost three: Hamburg vs Wroclaw (Eastern) in week 1 and Paris both games vs Stuttgart (Central). In the only eastern-central-interconference game, Vienna (Eastern) beat Tirol (Central).

Strength of schedule

Looking at each teams schedule, we can compute the strength of schedule. We use a combination of Opponent Winning Percentage (OW) and the OW of the opponents faced by the team under analysis (OOW).

...

Is the ELF getting more unbalanced?

31 July 2023
2023

Two new records in most scored points by a team in a game, another shutout and two more five-score games. So everyone is talking about: The league is too unbalanced!

Now I will not argue against this statement, I will compare the point differences in the current season to the previous ELF seasons. I will look at the 40 regular season games in 2021, the 72 regular season games in 2022, and the 65 games up to week 9 in the 2023 season.

...

Wins for wild cards

20 July 2023
2023

In 2021, Centurions qualified for playoffs with a 5-5 record, while Kings (5-5) did not.

In 2022, Raiders and Dragons qualified with a 8-4 record, while Galaxy and Rhein Fire (both 8-4) did not.

Before the 2023 season we predicted that most probably 8-4 would be needed for a wild card, but 7-5 might be enough.

Now after week 7, in theory a 5-7 record could still bring you into the playoffs, so no team is out of the playoff race yet. And also in theory, 9-3 might be not enough, so still no team is qualified yet.

...

Play-off race after week 7

19 July 2023
2023

Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages assuming random results based on 100.000 simulations.

Rhein Fire (67%) and Vienna Vikings (67%) are pretty certain winning their conferences. In the central conference, Stuttgart Surge (45%) is slighlty ahead of Raiders Tirol (37%), but Munich Ravens (12%) are still in the hunt.

Berlin Thunder (74%) have good chances to qualify for playoffs as wildcard. The last wild card might well be decided between Frankfurt Galaxy (67%) and Panthers Wroclaw (49%). Small chances still for Hamburg Sea Devils (20%), Barcelona Dragons (14%) and Cologne Centurions (14%). Fehervar Enthroners are statisticially out.

...

Regular season projection after week 4

27 June 2023
2023

Here are the projected conference win percentages and playoff qualification percentages based on 100.000 simulations and our current strength model.

Central

After beating the Raiders, Surge has the highest probability of winning the conference. However, Raiders have an higher chance of qualifying for the playoffs.

Eastern

Chance of Thunder winning the conference has dropped from 22% to 13%.

Western

Galaxy (45% to 51%) and Sea Devils (15% to 21%) could both increase their chance of qualifying for the playoffs.

...