First 2024 simulation

6 December 2023

Conferences and inter conference games are out. Time for the first simulation of the 2024 season. For this, we use the team strength for the 2023 season as estimated by our model, replacing the Leipzig Kings with the Madrid Bravos. The results of the simulations are of course very similar to the results of the 2023 season. There are however some interesting differences due to the changes in interconference games and Madrid replacing Leipzig. ...

Playoff picture

26 August 2023

Playoff race going into final week of the regular season Playoff spots secured Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner, bye to semifinal, home advantage) Stuttgart Surge (Central conference winner, ranked #3, home advantage in wild card round) Rhein Fire Frankfurt Galaxy Western conference Galaxy needs win vs Fire > +24 to clinch Western conference and bye to semi final. Either Galaxy or Fire will be ranked #4 and, hence, have home advantage in Wild Card round. ...

Playoff picture

19 August 2023

Play of race after week 12. Playoff spots secured Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner) Rhein Fire Frankfurt Galaxy Western conference Fire win conference unless Galaxy Win at Sea Devils plus win vs Fire > +24 Win vs Fire > +24 and Fire loss at Guards Win vs Sea Devils and win vs Fire < +24 and Fire loss at Guards Central conference Surge win conference unless Raiders Win at Seamen plus win vs Surge > +3 or Win vs Surge > +3 and Surge loss at Guards or Win vs Seamen and win vs Surge < +3 and Surge loss at Guards Bye week Fire and Vikings have a bye to the semifinal, unless ...

Playoff picture after week 11

13 August 2023

After week 11, two teams have secured playoff spots, and seven teams battle for four more spots. Teams need at least seven wins for playoff qualification, and nine wins will secure a playoff spot for sure. Playoff spots secured Vienna Vikings (Eastern conference winner) Rhein Fire Hamburg Sea Devils (4-5) Remaining games: vs Paris Musketeers vs Frankfurt Galaxy at Berlin Thunder Scenario for playoff qualification: Sea Devils win three remaining games (7-5) Panthers win vs Thunder and loose vs Enthroners (all 7-5). ...

Playoff picture before week 11

9 August 2023

Bye week is over and we start in the final four weeks of the regular season. Here is a breakdown of the playoff picture. Let’s start with the battle for conference titles. Eastern conference Vienna Vikings travel to Wroclaw on Sunday. If the Vikings win, they are the first team to clinge a conference title! If Vikings loose however, they only need two more wins. With games vs Enthroners and in Prague in weeks 13 and 14, that shouldn’t be a big problem. ...

Strength of schedule 2023 (week 9)

1 August 2023

Strongest conference For the 2023 season, the ELF conferences were reorganised. Before the season, the Western conference was said to be the strongest. After nine weeks, this can be confirmed. Out of their 14 interconference games, the Western teams won eleven and lost three: Hamburg vs Wroclaw (Eastern) in week 1 and Paris both games vs Stuttgart (Central). In the only eastern-central-interconference game, Vienna (Eastern) beat Tirol (Central). Strength of schedule Looking at each teams schedule, we can compute the strength of schedule. ...

Is the ELF getting more unbalanced?

31 July 2023

Two new records in most scored points by a team in a game, another shutout and two more five-score games. So everyone is talking about: The league is too unbalanced! Now I will not argue against this statement, I will compare the point differences in the current season to the previous ELF seasons. I will look at the 40 regular season games in 2021, the 72 regular season games in 2022, and the 65 games up to week 9 in the 2023 season. ...