The Tirol win vs Frankfurt in week 10 of the 2026 EFA season has opened up the playoff race. Two teams have already clinched spots in the BIG4 semifinals. The other two spots are open to four teams.
In the following, we present the results of the EFA ranking according to our current strength model, as well as playoff chances computed by simulating the rest of the season accodring to our model.
After their win on Saturday, Tirol is ranked #4 in our current strength model, only slightly in front of Paris. However, playoff chances for Paris are higher. The chances that Paris wins in Munich are slim, but Tirol needs a win in Prague to have a deciding match vs Paris in the final week 13. Currently we have Tirol with a 53% chance to win in Prague, and a 61% chance for a home win vs Paris.
Prague are back to being underdog again, despite currently beeing at 2-6. However, the tie breakers speak against them, e.g. due to a low strength of victory, and a very bad point differential. To gain the playoff spot, they basically need two wins in the final two games, and help from others. Overall, our simulation gives them a slim 3.3% chance to make it to the BIG4.
BIG4 host Frankfurt however is given a 98.4% chance for the playoffs. A win vs Nordic would bring help them clinch, although the probability for that happening is only 21%.
P.S.: In the fight for #1, Munich is in the lead. Our simulations give them a 84% chance to win the regular season. For the final regular season game Munich at Nordic, our model current prediction is 27-27.
