In 2021, Centurions qualified for playoffs with a 5-5 record, while Kings (5-5) did not.
In 2022, Raiders and Dragons qualified with a 8-4 record, while Galaxy and Rhein Fire (both 8-4) did not.
Before the 2023 season we predicted that most probably 8-4 would be needed for a wild card, but 7-5 might be enough.
Now after week 7, in theory a 5-7 record could still bring you into the playoffs, so no team is out of the playoff race yet. And also in theory, 9-3 might be not enough, so still no team is qualified yet.
Simulation
To get a more realistic view, we simulated the rest of the season 100,000 times using our current strength model. The results show that 8-4 is even more likely the record you need to qualify for playoffs. Here is a table with the percentages of records for rank 6 and rank 7:
| rank | 5-7 | 6-7 | 7-5 | 8-4 | 9-3 | 10-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | <1 | 1 | 29 | 62 | 8 | <1 |
| 7 | <1 | 13 | 63 | 24 | <1 | - |
Wild cards per conference
In the 2023 season up to four teams from one conference can qualify for the playoffs. Based on the simulations using our current strength model, we have a 62% chance that each conference sends two teams to the playoffs.
However, in 27% of our simulations, the Central conference had no wild card participant, but the Eastern conference had two. In 5.6% of the cases, Eastern has two, but Western conference has none. In 2.9% of simulations, the Western conference has two wild card spots and the Central conference had none.